Daily Analysis – Nov, 4th, 2016

Daily Analysis – Nov, 4th, 2016


The fact that the UK court ruled Teresa May can’t unilaterally declare Article 50 drive GBP much higher. Despite the UK court decision we do not think that there are signs that show us that Brexit will not occur. It might takes some more time for the parliament to pass some legal barriers but finally it will happen. We should see a significant recession in UK economic indicators with a significant improvement in global growth numbers in order to force UK political and justice elite system to rethink and finally cancel the Brexit decision (we are at the moment too far from this stage). As expected hawkish statement BOE lifted UK growth forecast while supported that cannot see any reason for further interest rates cuts at the moment.

Betting sites give D Trump only 30% probability to be elected. We think that this probability does not represents the reality at all. At the moment we see a 60% (+) probability D Trump to be elected as the next president in USA. Only the fact that US major indices are down for a 8th consecutive day (not seen it before 2008 crash) reveal many things… We should not forget that market do not wait the news in order to move but moves on expectations… The reality is that FBI gave a big boost on Trump’s by reopening Clinton’s file and of course a silent support to him. So at the moment we have two different camps. On one is camp is the deep US state that supports Trump and on the other the Global elite and financial system that support that supports Clinton.

Despite that USD getting cheaper USA equities remain weak. We continue to see highs of US and global equities market as a selling opportunity, however today some bullish rebound is very possible before losses continue next week.

We see high probabilities for a strong NFP number today and buying carefully USD ahead of NFP can give a good risk/reward rate if we got the ability to manage our risk.

Key points:

  • US major indices down for the 8th consecutive day
  • BOE Carney: Action in Aug. provided stimulus when needed
  • ECB BOE Inflation Report: Monetary policy can respond in either direction to achieve 2% target inflation
  • Schaeuble: ECB monetary policy has exhausted its leeway

triomarkets image

Click on image to enlarge

This website uses cookies. Privacy Policy