Daily Analysis – Oct, 27th, 2016

Daily Analysis – Oct, 27th, 2016


We do not see reasons at the moment to sell USD but the last two days the drop of greenback might signal a possible risk event and uncertainty before US election. We see that the upcoming US macroeconomic announcements later today and tomorrow will be above market expectations.

We continue to see global equity to move moderately lower however we do not see high probabilities for a large sell off until US elections. Out there existing many investors that strongly believe that the US result is a done deal as H Clinton is almost already elected. We do not think that US election is a done deal and will not be until the last minute.

Moreover we do not see that Clinton has much higher probabilities than D Trump in order to be elected. So is very important before US elections to leave any overconfidence we might have.
GBP was the strongest currency yesterday however we would like to see the rallies as a selling opportunity in the medium term.

Key points:

  • Deutsche Bank posts small Q3 profit
  • Barclays reports pretax profit of £837 million, beating estimates
  • Japanese PM Abe adviser supports that government should adopt more fiscal stimulus
  • BOE seeks details of #UK exposure to Deutsche and Italian banks
  • ECB Praet supports that Eurozone inflation is too low
  • Clinton 5.4% ahead in latest Real Clear Politics national polling averag

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