Markets on hold, USD appreciates – 14 nov 2016

Markets on hold, USD appreciates – 14 nov 2016


Oil futures continue to plunge as hope fades for an OPEC deal. It will not be a surprise to see Crude oil prices much lower later on. US dollar continues to grow more than expected, todays outlook on Fed Speakers could generate higher expectations for a hike next month. We see high prospects for further appreciation of dollar in the medium term.

With D Trump in power, his policy would have a mixture of monetary and fiscal, this policy will set a risk-on-tone in the markets. This shift in policy implementation that is expected from Trump would pull the global economy out of the 8 year strong monetary policy that was practiced previously, which if continued as is would have devastating effects.

Today markets will be moved by Fed speakers and Draghi’s speech as we got lack of important macroeconomic announcements. The rumors and leaks will continue of how Trump will recruit his cabinet, however it would take time to identify clearly Trumps policies.

We continue to see some of the most popular investors adding up on a long list that is backing up the new president elect, also markets also give him a large vote of confidence. Despite his different views on a variety of issues (e.g. immigration, tax system, and global trade) he is still receiving a great deal of support from the majority of the politicians.

Daily Key points:
• Copper eyes biggest weekly rally in 35 years as demand view shifts
• Italiana referendum poll : Yes 37% – No 40%
• Fed Fischer “There’s a lot of uncertainty around at the moment”
• 90% of surveyed economists expect further easing from the Bank of Japan
• Japan GDP hits 6-quarter high
• U.S. 30-year yield hits 3%
• Bond market losses $ 1 trillion since Trump’s victory

Daily Economic calendar:
Country Event Importance Previous Expectations Follow Times
Europe Industrial Production m/m Medium 1.6 -0.9 EUR 12:00
Europe ECB President Draghi Speaks high n/a n/a All indices 17:00

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