OPEC & Italian Referendum Spotlight – 29 Nov 2016

OPEC & Italian Referendum Spotlight – 29 Nov 2016

Asian markets trading very cautiously as the stock market moves slightly lower. Dollar remains in a consolidation phase and waits today’s macroeconomic news before choosing further direction.

In any case is not a wise to trade Crude Oil one day before the OPEC decision, no-one can predict the outcome. However we believe that the probabilities of an OPEC failure are high and the risk / reward ratio that it offers is low. It is more preferable to wait for a clear OPEC announcement after the meeting and act accordingly, rather than trying to guess the OPEC outcome. If an OPEC agreement is reached tomorrow it is important to, not rush to buy Crude Oil as the details of the possible deal will move the markets. Before trading crude oil we need to see more details of the deal, such as freeze productions of barrels per day if any.

The Market has uncertainties at the moment, for a possible Italian crisis which is unnecessary for the following reasons. Firstly and most importantly if we guess that Renzi loses referendum the president can rejects Renzi’s resignation and ask him or someone else to form a coalition government until the next elections. Secondly the market is significantly underestimating the probabilities for a “YES” vote.

Daily Key points:
• Turkey poised to send 3,000 refugees a day to Europe
• Japanese household spending better than expected
• Donald Trump says he’ll end US-Cuba deal without improvements
• Draghi said the ECB will preserve monetary accommodation, while he added that the central bank will assess options next month”
• Draghi supports that the global economy is facing significant political and economic uncertainties
• Spanish November inflation beats expectations but still lower than previous
• Economic Nationalism And Fiscal Reflation Dominate 2017 Global Economic Outlook
• Italy: Substantial proportion of voters are still undecided

Daily Economic calendar:
Country Event Importance Previous Expectations Follow Times
Germany German Prelim CPI m/m Medium 0.2 0.1 Euro n/a
Spain Spanish Flash CPI y/y Medium 0.7 0.5 Euro 11:00
USA Prelim GDP q/q Medium 2.9 3.0 USD 16:30
USA FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Medium n/a n/a All Indices 17:15
USA Consumer Confidence Medium 98.6 101.3 USD 18:00
USA FOMC Member Powell Speaks Medium n/a n/a All Indices 20:40

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