US election, Trump, NZD – 10 nov 2016

US election, Trump, NZD – 10 nov 2016


The whole world is discussing the victory of D Trump. The ‘’Armageddon’’ that we foresaw, lasted only for a limited time on most of the assets. The unifying speech from the new president and the fact that Clinton accepted her defeat was enough to relief the markets.

As of right now everyone appears calm and is trying to identify Trump’s intentions based on the statements that he has made in the past. Markets did not only recover their losses after the presidential election announcement but currently have moved higher than in the pre-election levels (except the Mexican Peso).

It is very important to understand that the major trend of the people in west have started to support is an anti-establishment movement and the momentum of this movement is getting stronger and stronger.

After Brexit and Trump, Marine Le Pen and Jeremy Corbyn might be closer to the power as they gain more credibility after Trump’s victory. A remarkable increase in the global bond yields shows a shift from accommodative to more fiscal policy.

The reserve bank of New Zealand cut interest rates as was largely predated but market does not see any further rate cut any time soon.

Key Points:

• Italy’s constitutional referendum on December 4th.222
• Thousands protest in major US cities, over election of Donald Trump.
• Nikkei 225 up 6%. Best day in six months
• Fed’s Williams: Fed can start gradually removing quantitate easing policy over next few years
• Largest one-day rise in 30-year US yields, in past 20 years.
• Reuters poll shows around 85% surveyed expect Federal Reserve hike in December
• Fed’s Williams: US economy is close to maximum employment

Daily Economic calendar:
Country Event Importance Previous Expectations Follow Times
Europe French Industrial Production m/m Medium 2.1 0.3 EUR 9:45
Europe Italian Industrial Production m/m Medium 1.7 -1 EUR 11:00
USA FOMC Member Bullard Speaks Medium n/a n/a All indices 16:15

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